The proposed concentration of powers in the presidential office would entail shifting the “civilizational vector” back from the system set up by the creator of modern Turkey Kemal Atatürk. This destabilizing move can potentially undermine national stability and might even trigger a popular revolt, yet those in Turkey who predict this possibility are being either silenced or demonized by linking them to terrorist groups and the Gülenists, note the authors. They also add that among the reasons for Erdogan’s urgency on the matter of constitutional changes is the increasing number of serious problems brewing in the Turkish economy. It is vitally important for the president to broaden his mandate before the plummeting social and economic standards start to seriously erode his support basis in the country, possibly leading to dissent and civil unrest.  

“The frail veneer of democracy of the Turkish leadership, contradicted by the authoritarian positions and the massive propaganda campaign in favor of passing the referendum, proves that the EU should not accept a positive outcome of the referendum as to do so would entail an implicit acceptance of the authoritarian shift in the country and of the repression of dissidents in the Turkish society,” – conclude Genovefa Etienne and Claude Moniquet of the ESISC.